L’anno Chinese The year just ended was certainly marked by the crisis of the financial system, the huge losses that have characterized the budgets of most major global banks have shown the inefficiency of certain operations.
The political solution found, as repeatedly pointed out, was to rescue banks through recapitalization also public rendendo il fallimento un’opzione non possibile e garantendo impunità alle gestioni fallimentari.
Se il 2008 è stato l’anno della crisi finanziaria, il 2009 quasi certamente sarà l’anno della recessione dell’economia. Gli indicatori mostrano che l’ultimo trimestre dell’anno è stato “pesantissimo” per tutte le economie, con tassi di decrescita del prodotto Interno Lordo che potrebbero toccare anche punte del – 5 per cento; inoltre l’anno appena cominciato non promette nulla di buono. Nel complesso la Commissione Europea prevede un PIL in diminuzione del 2 per cento in Europa.
La soluzione di molti Governi è stata quella di fare politiche di deficit spending, causing holes in state budget that could reach 10 percent in many Western countries. Germany, a country leading the European Union, may close with a deficit below the 3 per cent, despite "the aid promised by Angela Merkel.
Britain, one of the countries hardest hit by the crisis, however, should close with a gap of almost nine percentage points, the "advantage" of the United Kingdom is not to be part of the Euro and can then use the devaluation of the its currency as an additional weapon in response to the crisis. However, as shown by Italy, competitive devaluation is not a good weapon because it does not allows companies to restructure in times of crisis and medium term there is a real risk that this weapon becomes a "double-edged sword."
If Germany is relatively frugal in deficit spending, other European Union countries do not have the same attitude.
It is no coincidence that the crisis is leading to very high ten-year bond spreads to countries such as Greece, Ireland and Portugal and even Italy itself, which is suffering from too much debt.
If 2009 was a difficult year in the European Union, the major problems could arise rather than by the economy has grown in recent decades, China.
In Asian countries, after economic liberalization in 1978 desired by Deng Xiao Ping, economic growth has been almost continuous for about 30 years, raising tens of millions out of poverty in China. In the last quarter of 2008, the Asian giant has seen a slowdown of GDP to 6.8 percent, a figure so striking to the Western economies, for China is actually a very worrying figure. Now, China needs an economic growth continues to satisfy the millions of people from the countryside who go to seek work in cities, but if growth stops, there is the risk of serious problems, not only for the Chinese, but throughout the world.
The yearly growth rate was more than 9 percent in 2008, but 2009 could be the year of Chinese brake, with GDP, which may stop.
Other indicators are troubling coming from Asia, Japanese exports fell badly in the last quarter, South Korea is entering into the Asian recession and the picture is very bleak. China, which trade more with partners in the area of \u200b\u200bthe recession certainly affected neighboring countries.
The last economic slowdown in China occurred after 10 years of continuous growth and coincided with the first organized protest culminated in the tragic events in Tiananmen Square. Some studies indicate that there is some correlazione tra libertà economica e libertà civile, ma questa correlazione diventa presente ed evidente solo nel momento in cui si evidenzia una crisi economica.
Il 2009 forse vedrà finalmente l’aumento delle libertà civili in Cina, ma c’è il concreto rischio di una forte instabilità nel paese asiatico che potrebbe portare a delle conseguenze molto gravi.
Cosa si può fare? In questo periodo di crisi e di contrazione dell’export è necessario abbassare tutti i dazi doganali e le barriere esistenti nel commercio internazionale. Solo in questo modo si può sperare che le esportazioni possano riprendersi il più velocemente possibile. Alzare le protezioni potrebbe aggravare maggiormente la crisi and remember that in the '30s, the Great Depression was worsened by rising trade barriers and the conclusion was a terrible world war.
The next meeting of the G8 must provide the impetus for the resumption of the Doha Round is to liberalize international trade rather than impose another over-regulation.
See if Barack Obama, seen from Europe, will be able to provide the promised change and necessary.
